In political management, one does some things and one does not do others. If one squanders political capital you can go politically bankrupt quickly.
Last week with a republican congress on its first big vote, the republicans defected in record numbers. 100% of democrats were set to vote against the TRUMP Obama care legislation they themselves passed a few years ago. The loss on this critical first big item was MASSIVE by the numbers. So they pulled it – they were forced by thier own hand to pull it.
The impression is:
- Trump fails to appreciate how congress works or how to get things done in congress a congress his party controls.
- Now an anti-trump republican group is growing. In congress and its powerful.
- I think Presidential legislation is going to have grave dysfunction in Congress which I’ve reported on in my blogs.
- I believe Congress authored legislation may get through but will Trump sign their stuff or veto it as not his cup of tea? Uncertainity has no increased dramatically.
- The TRUMP euphoria creating the FOOLS Rally can become a bloodbath starting this week as the truth settles in.
Congress is going to remain dysfunctional.
Trump is unpopular with a 17% approval rating itself political capital exhausted into bankruptcy. To govern.
The IDEA that Trump would reset America economically is impossible without congress. Congress is not supporting the TRUMP game plan and IDEAS. His own party is not supporting Trump. That is now so CLEAR to the world and to America. A vast majority of American’s not the elecorial college LOVE THIS dysfunction. They are banking upon it.
The democates wish to DESTORY TRUMP and their first efforts worked – just let Trump destory himself.
IT MUST BECOME CLEAR TO THE SUPER MONEY THAT THE BETS ON VALUE AND GROWTH FROM TRUMP EFFECTIVE “RESULTS” THEY ANTICIPATED IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN ANYTIME SOON AND MAY NEVER HAPPEN AT ALL.
It is early in the game to be sure. Trump is a quick learner and I respect his ability to coordinate inside a team of experience and re-tool against the political box top rules he frankly is still learning. The idea TRUMP would destroy the establishment and rebalance the establishment is itself naive. SUPER MONEY controls the politics in all nations. I don’t see THAT changing anytime soon do you? Can Trump learn to be a GREAT AMERICAN POLITICIAN as if he can not learn THAT how does TRUMP make AMERICA GREAT AGAIN?
Trillions have been bet on market run-ups to all-time record high’s since last October based on the TRUMP EFFECT. This umbrella is filled with holes now and the acid financial rain is making everyone in America very wet indeed. Trillions of dollars are now on the wrong side of the economic BET.
We know Trump has LOST CONTROL of his own party in Congress. That is a fact.
The style and methods did not only NOT MAKE A GREAT DEAL they shattered any deal making at all. THAT is a FACT.
The loss is made worse by expectation. The rookie Trump could easily have set expectations much lower with so much preservation of POlITCAL CAPITAL. How? For example, he would have said – I have no idea if this first new model will gain the traction to begin the process of correcting Obama Care but I have hope it is the start of something that will lead to a final smart outcome. Anything like THAT.
To suggest – you either vote my way or you get Obama Care forever – was the tone. They chose Obama Care. Like the majority of congress flipping the bird to President Trump.
The fall out is worse. Now the idea – the HOPE AND PROMISE – of a functional republican congress is lost. Congress sent the word back. Congress IS IN CHARGE Mr. President and you work with Congress on OUR TERMS of you get more of the same.
That is the political capital of Monday. As you all know Trump doesn’t take any threat or lesson and say – lesson learned. He will step in front of it.
He has the public to think about.
The public is thinking – Trump said he was wired tapped to derail attention from serious charges of lying to his team related to RUSSIA influencing the election – which everyone knows they did. They do that everywhere. Nothing new there.
Trump has now serious inquiries that are SERIOUS about the wiretap false claim as the RUSSIAN ISSUE has not even started YET.
How will Trump make up with congress? Can he? Will he?
How dysfunctional will congress be? We suggest VERY DYSFUNCTIONALly.
What real legislation and economic growth can unfold without Congress? Any? Really?
One thing is CERTAIN from all this which effects the FOOLS RALLY. Any notion of financial explosions of growth from Trump is not going to take place soon or fast or have any effect THIS YEAR. Soon HALF THE YEAR will be GONE.
So the trillions on the wrong side of this bet are going to protect their capital. Soon we think.
When that happens…
THE OTHER SHOE FALLS.
Berny Dohrmann – waiting for the OTHER SHOE TO FALL – I’m off to the EU