MID-MARCH READINGS I WANT EVERYONE SHARING
Last year we told you to expect an insane election year FOOLS rally that would set prices already at record high’s, inside a record boom length period in time, where the higher it goes the longer it waits to correct the more SAVAGE the ultimate SUPER CRASH.
We noted the world markets were in a casino of speculative market pricing where all asset classes were now in a speculation fuel BUBBLE.
We told you this Spring ( that is Sunday folks ) the downward pressure would reach a tipping point. IT has been going down all week – pretty solid as we made that prediction last year against all experts we can find online or offline. We were right. Again. For our long time readers, this accuracy is now expected.
We also told you OIL, contrary to the world experts was not going anywhere. The notion OPEC was relevant somehow was wrong and that OPEC had lost influence control and credibility over the oil markets of the world. The day of OPEC is over.
We noted it is not longer a price war it is now and for years been a MARKET SHARE WAR. The foolish recent move to PRICE CONTROLS failed. What HAS HAPPENED is that Saudi has paid a price to let its other market members profit as Saudi loses market share and others gain the Saudi market share ( forever ). This was not a solid economic move. Why? Because politics led economics.
So the USA is now producing 9.1 million barrels A DAY. This market share on our side is soaring. And we have only been exporting for less than 12 months in fifty years. Our output is just soaring and nothing is going to stop that output. Also, our reserves in a nation have RISEN ( soared really ) for 9 solid months without let up. The USA is setting record after record of RESERVES OF OIL GLUT. While production is SOARING cutting market share from EVERYONE ELSE more rapidly than ANYONE ELSE. Said another way Oil will PLUNGE through the 50 dollar range and move to 42 dollars or below. Saudi will have to stop PAYING FOR OTHERS TO STEAL THEIR MARKET SHARE. Their strategy is no longer working. Everyone is taking advantage of them. Today they stated their market position was LIMITED IN TIME on reduced pumping. SAUDI MUST JOIN THE MARKET SHARE WARS OR DIE ( financially speaking ).
SUPER CHANGE is speeding up. We thought things were going to slow down and return to a new normal. They are not slowing down. They are continuing to speed up at every faster pace. What we all need to do is to CALM DOWN TO CATCH UP collectively.
Oil producers outside the USA from Nigeria to Russia are in new frontiers to plan budgets, and remodel their economies around decades of cheap oil. Without a world war or even with it – Oil is too abundant to finance old models for producer nations. Russia can’t afford to pay its bills and one would WATCH OUT FOR WAR as a way out of their PETRO nation crises. Putin’s failure to reform the communist system, economically, to diversify into entrepreneur national interests versus a single PETRO NATION with crashing prices and demand – has moved RUSSIA down in GNP by 80% in only sixty months. Failed policies are so punishing for the masses of everyday people while the 1% own all the wealth. Insane systems must rebalance eventually.
So the tipping point for a big correction is coming. Can the market go up some more – you bet and I suggest it would base on computer software manipulations.
However, as these items occur:
- Endless derailment of massive inflation coming – by the FED – raising interest rates every single opportunity and more aggressively on rates than anyone saw until something BREAKS LOOSE like a recession – WILL RATTLE MARKETS.
- Tepid growth in the USA running around 1% in 2017 is too weak to secure price ranges of all asset classes.
- Reality – many of Trumps HOPE CHEST items will take longer or NOT BE DELIVERED AT ALL and that reality check – will derail the markets entirely.
When is the SUPER CRASH? I can’t predict THAT other than to say its soon – by next Spring or sooner ( anytime ).
When is the market correction – Now to October is my best guess with all the King’s men and all the King’s horses trying and trying to put Humpty Dumpty back together again.
Meanwhile, RUSSIA moving next generation cruise atomic weapons into the EU theater does threaten Nato and is a violation of a treaty. Things are escalating.
North and South Korea are two trains at full speed charging into a head-on collision. Even China is worried now. Trump asked for MILITARY OPTIONS against North Korea. They might not wait and do the FIRST STRIKE. Then what?
China is in meltdown and riots are breaking out everywhere as controls get tougher and tougher – none of which are working. The CHINA DEBT and housing asset bubbles must SUPER CRASH and they will. When is all we don’t know?
Greece is about to default.
As dollar values soar with higher interest African South American and other developing nations in Asia will be unable to pay debt and defaults will begin to contagion through the system as the World Bank and IMF warned.
The good news is: what? Fake news is all. The economic recovery following the 2008 crash SUCKS and is THE WORST recovery ever. Period. Despite trillions poured into the markets to avoid depression. What a mess.
The policy has failed.
As the shells move around the table and the politicians ask the voters with this big ass grin – who has the pea? Which shell has the pea? Do you know? How about YOU? Do you see it? All the while moving the shells. DO YOU. Do YOU see the Pea?
Perhaps there is no pet any longer if there ever even was.
Berny Dohrmann – KEEPING THE PEA ON JUST FOR YOU— March 9, 2017