AN INVESTOR DISCIPLINE

IT IS HARD

To watch a SUPER RALLY which always has historically ended in correction with these over priced ratio multiples. We have told you why in charts and lots of data to consider. Your advisors have gone from froth to frenzy. Always crowd followers.  You never preserve capital by following the Crowd Warren Buffet rule 101.

The second longest bull market in the history of record keeping  is unlikely to avoid the historic corrections that always follow. We have lots of good news for business owners ,though.

  1. Housing all time high and market remains brisk driven by an artificial stimulus to beat record recent history rate rises in interest.
  2. Stocks all time highs for the wealth effect.
  3. Consumer confidence spiking to recent unexpected highs.
  4. Year-end consumer buying is record setting at year end
  5. Fiscal stimulus by EU and ASIA as USA tapers is ongoing  in 2017 in those markets

The EU zone is showing robust growth best in five years. Stimulus in free negative interest money is creating a false bubble but its good right now. Italy and its banks are the wild cards also reported here. Brett exit is going to have effects yet so watch that. Italy exiting will have an effect. The FIVE-STAR party that just won in Italy has called for state taxpayer bank bailout. This will destabilize Italy entirely. Borrowing cost on state debt will soar. So it’s  dicey. Unknown. Watch it.

We have suggested the correction will be large, without warning, and surprise everyone. WE stick with that. We think a likely WHEN time is before Jan 20th swearing in and the SPRING latest.

Why.

We think the NEW PRESIDENT will be market tested by: challenges in congress and outside profit taking from major international sovereign nations who can use digital market trading weapons to make a trillion testing us in short selling and selling in general by the billions at all time peaks. The ELITES make fortunes and grandma’s get killed. Following their idiot advisers who just don’t get HISTORY in financial markets or chart fundamentals like CAPE we have reported here on this blog so you DO know.

As financial history has never deviated we trust it looking back to look forward.

We may seem like idiots to you seeing these record highs but fools rallies are all like this just like in 2007. We seemed like idiots then. You can’t know the families that thank me for the money they saved by having the INVESTOR DISCIPLINE.

Sell HIGH. It’s all-time record high. Sell at base camp not the peak an inch from the long fall to the next valley.

BUY LOW when the next valley arrives. Smart. Investor discipline.

Always avoid the crowd at the end.

It is always like this folks. Insane value run-ups. Earnings next year before TRUMP policies have any effect in 2018 are likely to be muted and moderate. Not sweeping earnings rises that underwrite today’s breach with economic valuation.

The market was rich before the Trump SUPER RALLY. The market is INSANE today like 2007.

We’ll see who is right. Always want you on the right side of the pain.

 

Berny Dohrmann – Merry Christmas as we leave to host CEO SPACE Orlando

— December 11, 2016

What Do You Think?

You have to be logged in to be able to comment.

Skip to toolbar