SUPER CRASH – CHINA OR THE EU ?
PRESIDENT TRUMP will face some forward challenges. Will his economic team know how to read maps or will they rely on GPS guidance from prior teams? As gifted “economic tea leaf readers” are required I hold grave doubts President Trump will receive advice that helps him ride the surf that is coming.
As I’ve reported for years now the EU is toast. The EU will break up. The only issue is HOW. President Trump is one reason as to WHY. Popularism. The rally against insiders. In the EU it is Italy and its DEBT that is far more important than Greece and its Debt. Yet no one is really paying attention.
To my Italian family – know I AM ON WATCH and I “AM” PAYING ATTENTION.
For YOU are the KEY to the EU Survival on Dec 4th.
There are four opposition parties in Italy. 100% of them rally to ITALY EXIT from the EU. Why? There are too many reasons to report here. As an investment banker economist, I view the mount Everest of reasons to include the falling standard of living the aging population the debt run social service economy and the fall of manufacturing jobs and output by 5% since joining the EU while France and Germany rose 10%. Not a pretty nor a fair picture.
As an economic model, the EU is a failed model. IT can not survive.
Italy the largest EU VICTIM is alert with a very smart population watching BRITEXIT and seeing only the GOOD and all the predictions proved wrong. Horribly wrong. It is a signal the smart electorate was RIGHT and the money spent to preserve the EU was as much a loser bet as banking on Clinton Winning in America. A lot of lost dollars there – billions.
Dec 4th Prime Minister Renzi banks on his constitutional referendum passing. IF it does not pass due to popularism it is like an ITALIANEXIT VOTE. Prime Minister Renzi has said he will resign if he loses on Dec 5th. If he does Italy will move into chaos. The EU will follow. Italy will begin a vote to exit. The EU will begin to disintegrate ( just as I predicted it must and will ).
The EU will continue its downward plunge but a run out of the EU by tens of billions may already have begun at year end as the soaring dollar suggests. Everyone is running our of the phony Chinese currency and now the EU back into the US DOLLAR sensing the only real money on earth – is the global US dollar. Those attacking the dollar lost when President Trump was elected. In my opinion. Thinking ahead on policy.
Thinking about economics.
So the BIG NEWS is not what you are reading today. The big news financially – is the EU and the vote in Italy. IF Italians on Dec 4th vote for the constitutional referendum it is a vote to REMAIN IN THE EU in effect.
If they vote as they very well may vote – against the constitutional referendum it is an effective vote for ITALY LEAVING THE EU. Others will follow Itlay in 2017. The EU is experiencing a death spiral.
Betting on the preservation of Brussel central autonomous powers over the entire EU is a bad bet in my opinion. I see the sovereign nations of the EU restating their policy making away from the EU model, while forging a growing TRADING UNION by treaty. A United States of Europe is an idea tried – failed – and now going to the cemetery as the voters make their absolute will fully know.
So Dec 5th may be the BIG DAY For President TRUMP as his first global policy is going to deal with the utter break up of the EU right as he negotiates with China against their phony money, rigged trading systems, and unfair trading practices all about to come to a crashing end.
XI is running around like a panicked chicken with his head already cut off from Trump winning, trying to get a REGIONAL UNION formed to offset what is coming from TRUMP. Already in a total deflation death spiral in China, XI has debt-financed the delay of the coming CHINA SUPER CRASH which will bring on global depression to the entire world. By borrowing 300% of what China makes ( for so many years now ) the pile of Debt is not only unstable it has made the pain so much worse – so much. The REGIONAL UNION will dissolve when Trump divides and conquers with the USA WALLET and the strongest soaring currency on Each as the nation after nation will not wish to join CHINA in its death spiral. China is about to become once again the most isolated of countries because a handful of leaders, have adopted policies of shame, which have no long-term future.
The failure of communist economics is not personal, political or anything other than historic. COMMUNISM as an economic organizing system does not work. The people under such box top rules are loosing decades or a century under an elite rule and economically failed to model. They can do so much better when they shed communism. They will. They always do. Eventually. Human’s can not tolerate a lousy model for doing things when better models exist. It is that simple. Nothing personal.
So TRUMP will have his hands fuller or less full depending on how ITALY votes.
Now as always – my blog readers know what is really important. Mark your calender.
Berny Dohrmann – Keeping the TRUTH on just for YOU
PS: I realize a billion or more of my readers are focused on the release of SUPER MARIO for IPHONE – but really I don’t play games – but I do invest in Nantindo.— November 21, 2016