A PRE VOTE NOTE – THE THE UNITED KINGDOM

TO MY LIFETIME FRIENDS IN GREAT BRITON

 

It seems a lifetime AGO really that in the 1960’s I opened my first office in London. During the decades to follow the business community I have enjoyed in Great Britain remains my favorite for personal mentors on the planet. My great father opened the discussion those many years ago explaining to his young son being mentored early mind as he was soaking it all up. “You have to teach my son the basic truth that “you” are the parents upon the planet earth. We and especially American’s are the children. Oh we have all these creative and emotional things Children always afford their parents, but the parents must suffer through considerable bad manners and rudeness until the children learn to grow up. If you can forgive US as the United States for our childish enthusiasms I assure you we have reached a maturity and I know my son has that if you will teach him, then he will learn from you with gratitude.

Although that was such a long while ago, it remains with me in the 2016 year today. Which of course makes me uncomfortable as an investment banker economist ( albeit now an older one  a grandparent one ) to begin to lecture or opine in any manner. I pre suppose though my massive research and studies into the EU since pre forming and through its life have left unwavering conclusions I continue to advance without personal entrenchment. My views are always financial and economic bed rock in nature. Nothing personal ever. No emotion ever. Always just driven by data. No policies of any kind or agenda. Just economic data.

As I have reported from the beginning the EU as an economic structure is a large home, 500 million residing inside it, that is burning to the grown by DEBT FIRES, and no one in the EU economic team created a fire escape. This means there is only a hard landing to the break up of the EU. As the EU systemically is an economically failed model, driven today by ignoring trillions in bad non paying debt, while driving new free money and negative interest rate policies all of which fiscally, are failures in policy which time and an impossible weak EU recovery define today – its time to say YOUR POLICY FAILED but they don’t nor will they ever make an admission. And to deny the failure…is to pour gasoline upon the economic flames burning now.

What did the EU IN ( the fire storm )  was massive credit abuse, massive bad debt bubbles or debt bombs, and a world DEFLATION the EU can not inflate out of in 2016 and 2017  and is buried at its own funeral pyre within. We are attending the funeral of the EU in 2016.

The first one to leave the “wake” is going to do so much better than the last one to leave the funeral. The UK exit makes the EU deflation death spiral into unresolved debt bombs ( defaults ) exploding at its core nation account – worse. Far worse. Gasoline on the wildly burning building center in Brussels and as yet to effect any corner of the England WING which is not on fire – yet.

The BRIT EXIT is a vote to stop paying the massive DEBTS of the other EU bankrupt entirely members. Thats all. There is no risk to Great Briton.  All such statements are political lies created to use FEAR to drive a vote toward the political versus the economic. The voters it seems understand the difference. We always had faith they would.

 

Trade agreements will quickly be executed and where they are not England will make new trading partners to make up any difference. The UK will lose nothing and gain billions by exiting. Loose nothing gain billions. If they stay in the EU they will bankrupt their country entirely.  The net gain to the UK is so massive, that no one should vote not any one for staying. In my opinion. IT is economic suicide – it will destroy the UK economy to remain in – and it will SAVE the economy to vote to leave. Those who wish the UK to stay are the brains that are political not economic. The gain in politics to remain in is illusional. Political capital will increase with England’s independence from the EU. Individual politicians will gain if England stayed IN the EU and any real political capital is an illussion a lie. The fear is a lie. The benefit to leaving is staggering and will result in trillions of asset wealth being preserved for the British People. Nice if they read this sentence on BBC send it in for me.

Thank GOD the British had the wisdom to preserve the POUND STERLING far more important to the world today than the EU which is about to unwind utterly.

As Britain exits – and it will – Germany and others will wish to exit as the cost now exceeds the gain for nations like Germany and France. The debt buried EU members, and there are almost 20, with leaders like Italy and Spain making Greece look like loan money at Candy Land the children’s game in comparison, will be unable to continue, the DEBT BOMB will explode. We have believed first in Asia and then in the EU through contagion but it may be the other way around.

The more than 100 TRILLION in fully unpaid debt non performing debt no interest or payments made – BAD DEBT  and over 100 TRILLION DOLLARS a mount everest of debt in the EU,  that the system allows criminal bankers to keep on their books for their institutions now so insidious with investment banking combined in , as GOOD AND SOLID ASSETS when they are waster sewage not worth the paper the contract they are  printed upon – is going to have to work its way ( deleveraging ) through the ( deflationary period  ) for decades. The DEBT BOMB is the reason for the United Kingdom to cease hemorrhaging GNP into bad debt crooked politicians decades ago constructed in other less integrity driven nations –  right into institutions now politically lying and making new bad loans today. If you lie like this you go to prison. If they lie like this its called politics.

Germany France and the UK can never pay the bad debts of the other member nations . Not in 1000 years.  Their economies will be held back by even  trying to do so since 2015 starting with Greese. As a simple economic summary. The first to leave the EU wins. The last to leave will suffer the most.

We predict the EU will be gone in 2017. The UK exit from the EU is simply …ask not for whom the bell tolls….for the bell tolls for thee….its time really. Thats all. The people are SMART informed and get it. The Political spin of ages no longer works. We are immune to it. We have been vaccinated. It is why Trump is winning. No spin allowed with Trump.

So where does that leave the rest of the world? Better off. Trading with its partners nation by nation. The EU is simply failed. The idea the IMF and the World Bank may have used Chinese funny money ( fully manipulated phony currency ) or the EU ( a bankrupt currency ) as a world reserve asset is frightening. If economist bend to political agenda the world itself is lost. In the end economics runs politics never the other way around.

One day the politicians must always balance the books and pay for their lies. If they can’t pay entitlements they promised the effective bankruptcy and termination of social contracts follows. Most of the time the Politicians are already dead so we are no longer allowed to kill them.

Those still in power catch the heat of their lying fore fathers.

Economist may make mistakes largely due to political manipulation of the system – but they repair that with new models that define the error and fix the issue. Economics is cold hard reality without emotion or political agenda.

The EU speaking as an economist is a fully burning down economic house, without any fire escapes. 500 million people will suffer more because the EU was poorly created than IF the EU had never been created at all. To watch so many innocent people suffer because of the failed policy of less than 100 brains is a mind blower in 2016. But here we are. Yes folks here we are. God Bless the QUEEN and I mean it in 2016.

Getting out before your wing of the HOUSE ( Great Britain )  burns to the ground falls under a simple human model that pre dates economics.

 

……….it is now….every man for themselves…..everyone runnnnn…….

 

That is the EU in 2016.

Berny Dohrmann

Congratulating BRIT voters in advance

 

 

— June 11, 2016

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