PEOPLES REPUBLIC CONFERENCE BEJING:
As the huge Communist leadership conference begins RIOTS tore provinces loose. Massive army troops rolled into areas with thousands upon thousands of UNPAID coal workers rioting as state owned looser business’s are closed down. There are 1500 of them. They plan to lay off over six million workers. If these riots of workers who feel their wages are a RIGHT owed to them by the nation is any indication a HARD LANDING IN CHINA will include violence. Lots of it.
Consider this is just one mine village. Leaders are being put in jail. Human rights in such protests do not exit in China. Workers are starving.
China traditionally keeps workers on rotational ( sometimes we pay you sometimes we don’t ) but we never count you in the unemployment numbers. Kind of like the USA today. The millions now without futures have no hope. None. No one thought that through. Chinese unemployment insurance safety nets do not exist in communist central controlled economies. When politicians promise cradle to grave financial security to its population and its not possible to pay for such promise eventually the cost comes home to roost. This cost is landing now and it will be not a hard landing but an extremely HARD LANDING financially. The 100 TRILLION in State Run Operations SRO’s must work its way through the system and their 2.7 trillion in reserves are like FDIC a lie – a spit in the wind against real deposit value – China is bankrupt. The reason that we all don’t see and feel THAT is phony accounting. Period.
The MARKET NOW KNOWS and they are not going to invest until the DEBT BOMB fully detonates. In our opinion.
These manipulations are non economic and non transparent. Investment in China against this background is so RISK OFF we can’t see anything but further runs of trillions out of the nation. The currency in China is worthless today. For the IMF to include it into their basket of currency over USA and other protests is a POLICY ERROR by the IMF. One their management will come to great consternation over as the HARD LANDING ..comes into play.
Communist planners do not have the brain power – the solution options – the policy inventions to accommodate what should be PRIVATIZATION versus capitulation economically.
Their failed policy has destroyed confidence in their leadership direction their communist economic plan their forward game plan their execution and their ability to control what will happen in their society with 6 million which needs to be 60 million laid off. The death spiral of deflation in China ( see Japan crises 1980s in deflation which is still unfolding in negative interest failed policies today ) – is unstoppable. Investors know this globally.
When firms like APPLE relocate supply outside China watch the run on that bank.
Soft landing? I don’t think so. Not economically speaking.
The riots going on this week are the start and the people are not informed IN CHINA but these events go out on social and are also unstoppable. China Communist can no longer control INFORMATION and the TRUTH. Its impossible.
Meanwhile in their destabilized state North Korea plans a next nuclear test saying clearly FUCK YOU to the entire world – even their trading partners and friends. How miscalculated is this? Consider 100’s of nukes are pointed by Russia and the USA at North Korea. In seconds they are gone as a nation. If they fire a silver nuke they cease to exist. Their military leaders know this. At some point they will SHOOT the boss before they will all gone into ashes. Trust me on that simple equation. I only fear so many innocent folks will perish by a kid who fails to appreciate prosperity is the future and ego is an end game. No sum game in this kid’s forward planning.
The world is safe and North Korea is not a factor. It is an irritation and a sorry loss of so many millions to prosperity and full partnership we all wish them to join. China is not brokering this model because they wish to avoid the immigration bomb Syria has created for the EU. China can’t absorb 10,00,000s of immigrants that can cross borders in mass at anytime. No military could stop such mass migration to China from North Korea. That is CHINA’s big fear.
They are going broke now – their economic plan and model failed – and they are trying to lie their way into the future. In financial markets only the truth and a solid plan will set you free economically. We don’t see anything like that form he COVER YOUR ASS COMMUNIST leading the nation.
The sum of people’s who feel China leadership has failed has become overwhelming.
Crammer gets it all wrong in our opinion but he got one thing right. YOU DO NOT LIVE IN COMMUNIST CHINA – so your ok. Truly. We are so sad for the PEOPLE. Properly led with innovative leadership the Chinese miracle can continue. Every possible wrong call has been made and is being made and the world has truly tried to help and advise them.
The common vision in China for the future stinks financially speaking. It is a weak plan with weak team and lacks resources to execute. Until there is a STRONG PLAN A STRONG TEAM AND RESOURCES ( POLITICALLY ) TO EXECUTE the nation is facing a very hard landing which will impact the world but not as much as you may think. Trillions are moving just relocating to more stable Asia neighbors and will never return to China.
They are not aware of the BIG SUCKING SOUND and the riots this week demonstrate a failed plan from a failed leadership. The congress in Bejing will button down the hatches of the status quo – deny their own failures – lie about success – and create more of the same which will expand the DEFLATION ECONOMICS and the RUN ON THE BANK in all sectors taking place.
Watch and see if we are right – and for the right reasons …
Berny Dohrmann – Sad for China and its people –— March 16, 2016