HISTORIC PATTERNS NEVER VARY
Historically a bull up market of growth and expansion, travels for five years. 7.5 fives as we have it now is a very long up cycle. Typically we then see three to five years of recession as we move from growth to contraction to rebalance the system. Of course facing 100’s of trillions in bad non performing debt is a new wild frontier for the world market.
Never before in history has the market faced an EU break up – a deleveraging for all commodities within a Global Deflation – or defaults on sovereign debt from multiple nations landing like dominoes – still historic pattern would suggest in the strongest terms a long 7.5 year expansion period is unlikely to advance much longer.
Other aspects of the economy such as the drag in the USA of 35 million rising to 40 million long term unemployed – who have given up finding work on any basis – but are no longer COUNTED as unemployed at all – the government just waves its hands the statistic we once used for unemployment was removed. The 5,000,000 in our prisons are not considered in any way as this fastest growing city cost has become unsustainable for the State and Federal budgets using Private Prisons as local jobs programs.
No one has factored in that even American can not afford a war on terror for decades – the cost to security – the cost in war – has become long term a cost the nation can not afford and remain free of its own fiscal challenges. Bin Laden suggested – Super Powers ARE vulnerable and we will BANKRUPT THEM.
When the greatest military commander of modern times throws out a cherry bomb one might look around for the BANG.
So in an election year we plunge along with leader after leader going to the microphone and telling us all – hey its alright – don’t panic – things are better than they appear – China is not going to have a hard landing and somehow a 640 square foot one room apartment sold for 660,000 USA Dollars – as s concert bunker or shell – is worth that much money when replacement cost for that shell is under 50,000 dollars – and yes folks there is no Chinese bubble. The man who bought that shell bought it to have an address so his daughter could be in the school district the shell apartment was near to and he is going to borrow more money and buy more of them as investments and rent them out. This is what crashed the AMERICAN housing market and China is sitting on top of the world largest BAD DEBT BOMB and real estate bubble in any nations history. Newton never failed in math modeling. What goes UP must come down – the notion what goes up will go up and ever up is ridiculous but in a market of deflation it is more than ridiculous. Folks China will have such a hard landing it will shake the world. It is unpredictable when – this year but sometime between now and 2020. Trust me on this. Communism is a FAILED ECONOMIC MODEL and can never forge sustainable economics for its people. 87% of Chinese are no longer members of the communist part. Even that system must end up in a crash – where communism simply is removed.
Communism while so well intended is a political economic system that is worse than competitive capitalism with all its failures. Cooperative Capitalism the best of both systems is the future we all must build together a system that avoids lies cheating and is self correcting. We can do this folks. Read REDEMPTION THE COOPERATION REVOLUTION and JOIN the REVOLUTION and give this book to your circle.
The EU must break apart. It financially has not future. Before the migration bomb as large an economic weapon as a war itself the idea of a few wealthy nations underwriting the unsustainable debts of the majority of EU nations – such that debt bombs do not go off – is insane economically. The system is fatally flawed and the EU must with migration bombs going off in the EU system monthly – unwind the EU. The recession this will create will last for a generation.
Deflation delivering, and the notion we are in a stock market 1% away from its all time high – in a market of BUY LOW and SELL high – such that we go to new insane high value’s – is not sustainable either. So buyer beware.
We have warned of FOOLS RALLIES. Folks the software makes money running the market up and back down. US we loose.
US should be out of the market today. If you join a SUCKERS RALLY you failed to read my blog.
Berny Dohrmann – Investment banker economist – watch the market in 60 months not 60 minutes.