INVESTOR 2016 FACTOID

GLOBAL INVESTOR FACTOID:

 

Lets look at the facts, always a burden the pundits would rather talk around than about. We’ll start in 2015 when we reported the world wide manufacturing recession. The decline in global manufacturing has accelerated into 2016. We cautioned that a manufacturing recession historically previews a serious ( like duh an of course ) earnings recession to follow.

No one listened to us and the markets blossomed into year end silly rally’s.

In 2016 we have the blog reported EARNINGS RECESSION materialize reported all month world wide. This has bred the worst stock market year opening in the history of record keeping or over the past 100 years. Said again THE WORST EVER.

This seems not to alarm anyone that a huge global recession even depression is coming. Except say “me”. Investment banker economists should be listened to why? Because in 91 predictions since 1990 we have not had one wrong call? Perhaps track record. Perhaps outreach and data? Perhaps experience and expertise? Perhaps historical graphs and charts? Those things? Still kids on the news who have no experience, lived through no cycles, and experienced no under pin causation are reporting as authorities and it makes me chuckle really. Its like seeing the munchkins reports about the grinch.

Well its snowing except here in Florida – its 80 here and I’m going for a walk around the lakes.

Data. No one cares about data. I’ve told you, that DEBT is the problem. THE DEBT BOMB is the problem. The 100 years of failed mismanaged central bank fed policy, has destroyed nations. There is no spin on this data. Recently the Fed’s spun out more debt than the past 500 years combined together. That debt can’t be repaid. The idea was to see “free money” circulate but no one circulated the money they SPECULATED THE MONEY. They exploited criminal trading loop holes to manipulate markets world wide into he biggest commodity bubble in human history. The housing bubble was raised up without fixing any of the prior speculation issues. If you take our institutional manipulative buying in housing commodities and the markets all markets would collapse utterly. There is no real market left. There is only a small group of super pools of capital betting one firms computer software against another.

Said another way the BASE OF MARKET PARTICIPATION is as an INDEX the lowest in reported history or EVER ! You can’t have a real recovery when the participation index is the lowest ever reported. Whats left is a casino.

So in the Casino nations on one side – China and Russa – are loosing trillions. Nations on the right side, the USA are retaining trillions hence the strength of our dollar. But wait the DEBT BOMB.

All nations are exploded when one looks at the DEBT data. In non commercial non bank lending – firms private equity and hedge fund lending to companies, over the past five years an added 39 trillion dollars of debt has originated – one trillion last year for corporate stock buy backs ( another pure casino bet or speculation ). Today at the stock prices have crashed and are still crashing today. 22% of the five year debt – according to data – is non performing. Said another way 9 TRILLION OF DEBT is never going to be paid back. When this rips across the Private equity world, and hedge fund landscape who now report this debt as a solid asset – and adjust 9 trillion first all and up to 20 trillion next call as never to be paid back – the bankruptcies will fall like rain world wide. The entwined interlink of these debt pools will take decades to DELEVERAGE from the system.

Too big to jail Banks and government lenders, are holding over 100 trillion of what is going to land as bad debt. All this casino debt is going to have to work its way out of the system. The EU is as we reported dead on arrival ( financially ). There is no way Greece can repay its debts. That was before the refugee crises they now bear. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE.  Spain, Italy, Portugal and others line up right behind like dominos debt. THE DEBT BOMB has exploded the EU from within and although the body is walking around, the death delayed will become more like world war. It always does historically. Politicians ultimately get caught in an inconvenient truth Рhey we lied to you guys Рand this tends to anger populations who suffer from the manipulation.

The debt is not sustainable. The manufacturing recession is accelerating. The earnings recession is here and is now accelerating. The markets are crashing world wide as they see the truth. The Debt Bomb has not even been factored in but when it is SUPER CRASH with a  6000 DOW will unfold so fast one will have thought it was impossible as all contagion events appear and seem impossible.

The world is in serious deflation – delivering – and melt down from the casino manipulated market prices, the failed policy of speculation and price manipulation, the consequence of unchecked debt as policy, and free money by the trillions as policy, with the unintended consequence from a bet of ten years to excited INFLATION that FAILED UTTERLY and now is collapsing into deflation and a whirl pool of debt.

Those holding the debt are fools holding inflationary hopes.

Newton never said …what goes up continues to go up and always goes up folks.

What went up is now coming down.

Physical economics.

There is too much debt. There is too much surplus supply and capacity in a market of falling demands. There is the largest core shift from oil and polluting energy sources in man kind’s history. Spin and manipulation no longer work as policy. Tell the Truth Faster is the only thing that works. Even then TELL THE TRUTH FASTER simply defines leadership, and less damage from the crashes unfolding.

Deflation will unwind value tables in everything and make debt impossible to repay for the two sides. The DELEVERAGING REQUIRED following the worlds largest economic reset since World War I is going to be painful. There will be stair stops and regains before the next lower landings but we will continue to bounce down. Why?

  1. We are entering the GREAT WORLD WIDE DEPRESSION
  2. Caused by Spending more than we make – across the board and debt
  3. Now unsustainable debt will rob the world system of liquidity
  4. Super Crash will freeze liquidity and world trade as unseen in 70 years
  5. World War is the historic remedy which is more near term than many realize because the death of the old financial order has arrived for the reasons set forth.

We can not earn our way out. The only NON WAR SOLUTION is a G 100 THREE YEAR ECONOMIC CONSTITUTIONAL CONFERENCE TO RESET DEBT TRADE AND GLOBAL SYSTEMIC RULES – COOPERATIVELY. If we compete we perish.

Today we see only trade war. China says they will not float their currency lower -then they allow it to drop 30%. The USA raises interest rates and the dollar rises making China have to adjust with the rest of the world – who impose their own tariffs and trade war responses in competition. The world is not moving to COOPERATIVE TO RESOLVE THE FAILED GLOBAL SYSTEMIC PROBLEMS which is a full on financial EMERGENCY.

Everyone wishes to band aide to make once last pass at the greed machined and profits for the few against the many. Folks 1% own more world wealth than 99%. That is unstable, immoral, unethical, criminal, and unsustainable economically. Its data from Citi Bank and its now folks.

DEBT BOMB is going off. It can’t be contained this explosion. These blasts are entwined and linked and one hits another hits another. You have to follow the real money to see the under lying issues.

The market:

  1. Has zero regulatory controls and is out of control in wild speculation globally.
  2. The market is over leveraged with margin ratios the Great Depression of 1929 never saw
  3. The participation in the market is lowest ever – but trading is high due to leverage
  4. Debt and liquidity are going to crash
  5. The markets are going to follow and with contagion both are almost instant.

The only question is when. You can expect:

  • An atomic market event of SAVAGE VALUE DESTRUCTIONS to a Dow of 6000
  • A Real Estate Blood Bath that makes 2008 look like a Childs play ground
  • Asset value falls that will consume decades of deleverging
  • This generation has no experience or plans for long term deflation economics
  • The world economic system has been borrowed into death by failed Fed policies
  • Feds must be merged into treasuries world wide to restore the system
  • A new system – cooperative capitalism – must emerge or we use world war historically to repair the problem and reset asset values.

So what you are seeing is not a short term item but the consequence of ten years of errors from the past abuse of debt in the system. No one fixed the problem. Laws and regulations are local. Trades are in the cloud. The G 100 need to execute the LARGEST REGULATORY GLOBAL RE-THINK IN 100 YEARS and if they don’t get THAT right – we suggest you plan to prosper during a period of war.

Financial history is what it is. Never lies. Never spins. Just is honest really.

Getting the truth – now there is the issue. This blog is designed to tell all sides of all perspectives data truth you can take to your own bank ( if it doesn’t close up ).

Good Luck and Good Investing:

Berny Dohrmann

PS: Oh yes we have told you WHAT TO DO and precisely without having to buy something – we just gave you the safe harbor steps to take – but truly – only you can take them to protect yourself. Folks the truth IS coming watch for it……we report the caution to be cautious of fools or sucker rally’s where software manipulates rally’s in which the super pools make profits all the way up and yes all the way down and you get killed…..just killed if you buy in to those cycles and rip tides. When do we return to new normal? With this debt – not soon folks and not now.

— February 2, 2016

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