WHY THIS IS “WORSE” THAN 2008 – COLLECT MY BLOGS ON DATA
As I report on this blog since 1990 without a hiccup in correct forecasting – may I suggest the data never lies. You just follow the MONEY folks. You get under that old economic hood. As a retied investment banker economist – and CEO SPACE INTERNATIONAL engages the lead advisers to the Fed and beltway, we get data. Lots of data. We report what we know and our opinions about that data as one source of discussion with your licensed professionals before you take any action. So this rich background does the impossible. IN a SUPER CHANGE market it KEEPS you current. Currency is the new decision maker gold. Information. Current information. Information is useless in its raw form. Information is terrifically powerful unlimited in its power and reach when you have help to interpret the information into strategic action. Our objective is to create SAFE HARBOR for our business owner CEO’s in 140 nations over three decades so they reside behind safe sea walls from the developing financial storms, now hitting shore one after the other. Do you feel me?
Lets begin with data. The world moves through five year expansion periods and then enters into contractions or recessions periods. The time between booms to bust are typically five years maximum. The world that enjoys larger longer booms has deeper longer contractions. The world has passed 7 years now of booms so we are over due for a correction. In fact we are “dues” payable given how large the expansion has been – overcoming the SUPER CRASH of 2008 – for a strong recessionary correction.
The crooks that are brining you this boom bust cycle are unlikely to tell you the truth about what is coming while they themselves profit from it.
Now keep in mind the massive general market left the markets in 2008 an NEVER EVER CAME BACK. Today the market participation rate is the lowest EVER – thats right EVER. 80% of ‘us” who were in the market are OUT of the market and we are unlikely to enter back any time soon. The volume and velocity of this phony baloney market has been fueled by debt. Thats right debt. In 1999 the 847 regulations that blocked a bank from taking your grandmothers deposits and investing them into off shore, fifty to one loan leveraged, investing in private unregulated speculations known as ETF ‘s ( a structured asset contract between parties making casino bets on future prices ) is trillions upon trillions of dollars now – manipulating the market. This fantastic debt we made possible by FREE MONEY in which investment banks and banks now TOO BIG TO JAIL are investing the back bone wealth of nations in computer trading one chaps computer against the other chaps. Computer to computer. Up and down. Computer gambling beyond any nation to control or regulate under PRESENT EXISTING LAWS. The new digital trading markets are the wild wild WILDER WILDER WILD West on line – where rules are local and trades are in the cloud folks ( slight of hand for zero oversight or regulation ). Not good. No real market is possible when the volume of trades is betting WHICH WAY SOMETHING WILL GO versus making long term stake holder investments in the economic growth of communities.
This SUPER POOL of raw speculation power has casino manipulate during the boom, borrowing free money by the TRILLIONS and leveraging that money fantastically, into side bets on all commodities and the prices of everything. The Central banks failed to predict or see the consequences as their own members made ungodly profits. Money was not invested back in plants, in equipment, in jobs and expansion. Rather money was invested back into mergers and stock buy backs, reaching over one trillion for the first time ever, where stock price is driven by borrowing, debt and everything not basic to value. This phony market is now collapsing. In part because free money after ten years ( a totally and absolutely phony policy to create false wealth effects and confidence ) is now unwinding – as a shell game – and those making the bets are loosing trillions.
One trillion has left China alone in less than 12 months. Another trillion has left development markets. This is around 50% of what is yet to depart. Inflation has been out to lunch for ten years and now after 100 trillion of investing deflation is taking hard root world wide. The price of everything is collapsing. Which leads to serious recession contraction and with a SUPER CRASH global depression and world war – biased on historic models of 5000 years – never ever changing. Learning from history can make fortunes for those on the right side of the INFORMATION.
If you make a favorite and track this BLOG your tribe and circle will remain on the RIGHT SIDE OF THE INFORMATION.
China’s problem in the news is GNP falling. Folks. China is a controlled communist county that lies about everything. China GNP is a false number. If audits by Doolittle we are confident China GNP would be negative and in recession in 2016. Further they lie about every single and simple thing. The truth is that CHINA has raised their debt load 28 times since 2000. In fact the data shows China has raised their debt 300 times higher than their GNP or double Greece Spain and Italy which are impossible to save. American looks like a 12% home loan against assets and income by comparison which is WHY the dollars is doubling in 12 months while the rest of the world buying power is collapsing. The dollar is going to soar. Oil against a dollar is going to fall. Oil went up in ratio to the dollar going down. As the dollar goes up 50% as oil trades are paid in dollars, versus China or the EU’s phony money, the price of Oil drops by half. As the dollar soars even more oil will go down more not to mention America is the new big supplier in the pond. We just don’t need off shore oil like we once did an now we export it like Iran. As Ralph Nader said so prophetically – folks the world is drowning in oil…..downing……now you see price reflecting a commodity that like corn renews itself, and of which there is more than enough.
China’s recession economics, the flight of investment capital, the threats of a Trump ( bring Apple and he means trillions in goods and manufacturing home to America and he’ll make the tax breaks and incentives to bring it all home ) are influencing a run on China. Money is running out. No end in sight. Business is running to more friendly jurisdictions that speak english and laws are not under communists. China can not recover with this deflation spiral. Their bubble in real estate is just beginning to crash. Their bubble in commodities can’t recover for decades. As with Japan and its 20 year Asian crises, Abe-Economics is trying to restart inflation with unmatched massive central bank spending – all of which has failed. For 20 years. Deflation is beyond nations to fix. Markets must fix deflation. And often the only way to re-inflate is war. Over history it has been proven. While we wish to avoid war the only way to do so is COOPERATION VERSUS COMPETITION.
However as the financial pain worsens, nations fail to cooperate and they compete in trade and currency war in growing markets of distrust and negotiation versus cooperation and trade alliance building. Keep in mind if the USA said, we no longer will import any thing not made in the USA – our nation would soar in wealth and prosperity and everyone else ( everyone else ) would diminish. The reasons for this are so economically complex I’m not going in to them here but this fact underwrites why the dollar is and will remain the only global trade currency on earth.
While China a huge global expander now contracting, effects all world markets the real problem is data. In the EU an and in vast parts of Asia and in all of North America, the earnings and buyer ratio’s of income to real property prices commercial and residential are way out of whack. Also in equities the Price Earnings ratios are way out of whack ( because of leveraged casino wealth versus real wealth ) where the GNP of the nation can not support the equity market value. What this means is that a period of deleveraging or DEFLATION is locked upon the world markets. This means a spiral downward of price, labor, everything is resetting core valuation against what discretionary spending is ( real economics folks versus manipulated funny economics and books ).
There are some other issues. The big ones include these items:
- Central banks are obsolete. The money management systems can be MERGED into the national treasuries of nations. Printing money can be achieved with total transparency in digital markets, without the franchise need to pay out interest to print money to third party private firms known as central banks. Also the idea of banks self regulating has caused all world wars. Today we need a new model. The largest debt of all nations is paying their central bank interest. This can be re-tooled by legislatures and leadership fast. Repairing the largest cause of global boom bust cycles, depressions and world wars. Modernize the system.
- Speculation gets around the laws. We never fixed the cause of the 2008 melt down. The trades are in the cloud and the rules are local. The world needs a three year ECONOMIC CONSTITUTIONAL CONGRESS suggested in my book to fix all this called REDEMPTION THE COOPERATION REVOLUTION a must read for forward planning thinkers and all investors at any level. This congress of the G 100 would set up global rules to make trading fully reporting, no secrets in the system, fully audible, fully accountable, where speculation is a crime as it was in 1999 and before, and would be again. The real makes would return with forward controls in a global digital market all nations would make a level playing field. Cooperation rocks folks. Without it we move to repeat history and into world war. Donald Trump can’t stop it nor can Hillary. Its math 101 as Bill Clinton said “folks its just arithmetic its just do the math “. Until market prices are free of wild speculation there is only casino capitalism in all nations from Russia to DC.
- Tax laws Entrepreneur friendly laws in global trade needs to be one set of rules for the world where small business creates all the jobs and is truly global when they click – GO on line. Making a set of common rules so the cost and barriers to create jobs and base are removed elevates all nations all at once simply by planning. Financially we can no longer steer the star ship economic earth with 210 global captains. We can have sovereign nations control the common laws they vote into being through the ECONOMIC CONSTITUTION for the world, but they need to create a common ground of economic rules to facilitate the moderation of boom bust cycles. Which create depressions massive suffering while an elite class that basically gets fantastically richer enjoys a TOO BIG TO JAIL pass for what amount to the most serious crimes against the environment and human history known to mankind. The individuals are never at fault. The SYSTEM is insane. We need a SANE system replacing an insane system created during an age of letters and tall ships and telegraphs. Its time to UPGRADE the WORLD FOLKS.
In that non one is doing that you have to develop a GAME PLAN for YOURSELF. Which is why I suggest you also read GAME PLAN by Kevin Freeman who tells you what exactly ( as a consultant to the FBI and NSA ) THE FORWARD DIGITAL WORLD WAR III ECONOMIC WAR looks like. This is an important read because you live inside this war. The 2008 crash was created by a digital weapon exploiting the system vulnerabilities. These weapons are now being fired at China and the entire world once again is effected. Those firing the weapons make trillions on the losses of others. These are crimes against humanity. The UN and the Hague need to modernize and CHARGE FINANCIAL CRIMINALS such that no power no matter how influential is TOO BIG TO JAIL. Economic crimes against humanity are as urgent and important as ISIS crimes are locally and globally.
Sanity can identify insanity and control like Ebola its outreach. We can inoculate with digital tools and tactics the massive humanity from the insane. So few laws – common sense global laws unite us IF WE COOPERATE. Competition is the one and the only virus on human consciousness. Everything from environment to global warming to ISIS to economic criminal behavior is sourced by COMPETITION. Competition is insanity. Competitive virus infected brains are INSANE. Cooperation is the virus removal tool and the only authorized form of human sane behavior. Once we educate that competitive expression is ignorance – is uneducated – is insane versus sane – humanity rewards the sane ( the good ) and isolates the insane and the ( evil ). Competition is insane and competition is pure evil. When a conscious brain wakes up to this one fact conscious laws can be rapidly deployed by awake nations who lead. The revolution is now for human kind the sane versus insane. We can get there after a war or without a war. I vote for NO WAR this time. For all of the unborn generations.
So the solution is defined step by step in the manifesto work – the global REVOLUTIONARY MANIFESTO – REDEMPTION THE COOPERATION REVOLUTION. Buy ten copies – leave positive comments – and give them to your circle. You will not believe the difference in your wealth, influence and associations if you take action to get traction. Become a leader of the cooperation revolution the FINAL REVOLUTION of human kind. Begin to read all news with new eyes. See the source under the symptom. All pain is symptom. The cause is competition. The cure is cooperation. Thank you Iran for leading the sanity with the USA. We can show the way folks. Its never perfect but….it is a huge start. Always a huge example of what is possible with two cooperative thought leaderships versus competitive virus infected past thought forms.
Cause verses symptom. Leaders are readers – get smart on this folks. As if the life of your circle and those around you depend on it. The good news the informed can prosper in any and every market opportunity. We’ll show you how here.
More data. The CAP to GNP ratio is too high at 75 and its recently been 110. The wealth estate coming out of the GREAT RECESSION was phony forged on free money and debt created by central banks of the world and stimulus packages. Further the down payment by new first time home owners is too great for average lower incomes today world wide. So from China to London from New York to Kansas without first time home buyers in record numbers, others can’t move UP. So the adjustment is a bubble deflating. Deflation lasts for decades. Over 20 years in Japan for one example and still counting. The world is just now entering the cause of all depressions DEFLATION and as it starts nations have no ( zero tools in their tool belts ) to correct deflation. The market knows this and preserves principle with every one for themselves strategy. Competition versus cooperation. A receipt for economic history to repeat itself – unfolding as you read the news over time.
So the correction normalcy is impossible. Say the USA is used but its worse in Asia and the EU. The idea is the banks are better capitalized than in 2008. That is a lie. In fact the regulations created super consolidations of investment banks, financial firms, and all institutional wealth into TOO BIG TO FAIL/JAIL. The banks in fact are bankrupt. Using phony accounting nations allow for banks and now investment banks they own are are owning the banks – asset classes that fail to perform – non preforming loans – failed bad loans – are reported as good performing assets. If those assets were actually audited to fair market rates today in deflation terms, all banks would be blown away. There is no real capital behind banks. Your money is lost due to wild leverage and borrowing against your deposits. If you ever wanted your money the system would collapse in 72 hours. Just try and get your money out. You’d see quick.
The Fed or central bank in just the USA printing 3.5 trillion in debt asset borrowing as an asset on their books, from 2008 forward. They took the interest from 5.7 % to zero. They have NO SILVER BULLETS left folks. None. Their first attempts to stop the leverage borrowing that drives the world – moved the market to the worst opening in two past weeks in 100 years. Just that. Alone as one example.
Second, the USA Federal government – you the tax payer – increased your public debt from 2008 by 8.7 trillion. Said another way this is 170% increase in a few years. More public debt than all the congressional debt since George Washington Combined together and then some. This of course can NEVER CONTINUE. The Federal government has NO SILVER BULLETS left either. Which applies world wide to ALL NATIONS hence the cause of global depressions. Spending more than you earn for years upon years of time.
Is there a solution? Yes but it takes cooperation. IT takes a FRESH ECONOMIC IDEA and plan for all nations not one nation. We outline that plan in REDEMPTION and the leaders of nations like President Obama are reading it. But all leaders of congress need to master it not just read it. Without A FRESH IDEA AND PLAN we using old models move to repeat history and world war. The data never lies folks.
The market is intelligent. It knows. After all it creates the bubble and it profits from the crash. No one ultimately wins though in this model long term. It is just a mess. Economically the POLLUTION has reached Bejing levels. The world 10 billion citizens are crying WE CAN’T BREATHE as the elites continue the economic choke hold because they are insane.
They don’t have a sane process. The insane process is DENIAL of the DATA.
The sane process is to DO SOMETHING SANE to fix an insane problem.
Its complicated folks. Economist Naomi Kliens great work ( so sane we ponder why the insane didn’t kill her …she told us the truth ) in SHOCK DOCTRINE. The failed policy of the INSANE economists who have horrible software from their antique education on their main frames. They need software upgrades is all. Some are getting that upgrade others are not.
Davos is inane because its a group of computational forces working against the cooperative power or solution. That is insane. Nothing sane can come out of competition. How do we preserve the greed machine. When the world needs an ECONOMIC CONSTITUTION for world trade and global peace.
I’ve told you all what to DO in my prior blogs. I predicted the corrections we are seeing. I predict wild turbulence in ever tightening trade wars in currency and capital flow dynamics globally, for 2016 and into 2017. Wild upswings. Enormous down crashes. More irregularity as the inability of the system which is filled with lies adjusts until with war or some replacing sane process the TRUTH returns. The real and the whole truth economically.
There is no pain free way to exit decades of post war debts that never got fixed following World War I and World War II. The Digital Financial World War III that started with the crash in 2008 and is on going with China today being attacked, demonstrates the insanity. Without reading KEVIN FREEMANS great work GAME PLAN you will lack the pure DATA to know I”m right in my report to you. I’m far form radical I’m a lighthouse of accurate data and truth for you to plan by.
March 6th we gather investors, and smart CEO’s into a COOPERATIVE GLOBAL TRADING COMMUNITY at the WESTIN LAKE LAS VEGAS I believe is your personal DAVOS and salvation. Putting yourself in CURRENCY on DATA and inside a ever growing COOPERATIVE TRADING COMMUNITY – Forbes the financial magazine ranks in 2016 ” AS THE ONE MEETING YOU CAN NOT AFFORD TO MISS” says it all. I’d click the web site for ceospaceinternaitonal and see some video’s for your industry category. 30 years of leading can’t hurt anyone. Invest a tax dollar early this year in a LIFETIME MEMBERSHIP to insure your forward prosperity. Join with leading CEO’s coming together to expand SAFE HARBOR for those who will prosper in all forward markets. You deserve the winners edge if your reading this blog. And you owe your circle a sharing of this link.
So you have DATA. Lots of pure data. Proceed better informed and return often.
We are keeping a light on for you today and every day.
Berny Dohrmann Chairman CEO SPACE
PS: I write this just back from DC and I present my best data for my readers as I receive it from the sources. If you scroll back you’ll see my many warnings and predictions of all we are now living through to our CEO’s over 30 years in 140 nations as CEO SPACE Members. Information can only help you and your circles.
— January 20, 2016